Liverpool host Newcastle United at Anfield on Saturday night in a fixture carrying growing pressure for both sides as the race for the Premier League top four tightens.
Liverpool enter the weekend without a Premier League win in 2026 and have slipped to sixth after five straight league matches without victory. Newcastle, meanwhile, sit ninth, five points off the top four, and arrive with questions around their away reliability despite encouraging continental form.
The market still favours the hosts at 1.81, with Newcastle priced at 3.95 and the draw also at 3.95. That reflects Anfield’s strength more than recent Premier league results.
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Form and context
Liverpool’s Premier league campaign has stalled. A dramatic late defeat at Bournemouth last weekend ended a 13-game unbeaten run across all competitions and highlighted a recurring issue, game management in decisive moments. They have conceded three stoppage-time winners in the league this season and are averaging their lowest goals per game in a Premier League campaign since 2011-12.
That said, their home form remains a stabilising factor. Liverpool are unbeaten in seven matches at Anfield in all competitions and responded strongly in midweek with a dominant Champions League performance to secure last-16 qualification.
Newcastle’s domestic form has been uneven. They are winless and scoreless in their last two league matches and struggled badly without Bruno Guimarães in a recent home defeat to Aston Villa. Encouragingly for Eddie Howe, Guimarães returned to the squad in midweek as Newcastle earned a 1–1 draw away to Paris Saint-Germain, extending their unbeaten run on the road in Europe.
League form away from home remains a concern, however. Newcastle have won only three Premier League away matches this season and have not beaten Liverpool in the league for over a decade.
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Team news
Liverpool’s defensive resources are stretched. Jeremie Frimpong is ruled out with a hamstring injury, joining Giovanni Leoni and Conor Bradley on the sidelines, while Ibrahima Konaté and Joe Gomez are doubts. That leaves Arne Slot juggling options across the back line once again. Alexander Isak also remains sidelined.
Newcastle welcome back Guimarães but are without Joelinton, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth and Fabian Schär. The visitors are closer to full strength in attack than defence.
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The takeaway
Goals are expected by the market, with BTTS priced at 1.60, but Liverpool’s recent control issues and Newcastle’s away caution point towards a tighter Premier League contest than the odds suggest. Anfield still matters, but margins look slim rather than explosive.
Pick: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53.
Secondary angle: Liverpool win and under 3.5 goals.
Photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images
