Round 1 reset the conversation after Australia stunned South Africa at Ellis Park and New Zealand marched through Córdoba. The All Blacks are favourites, but history, venues and match-ups mean punters still have a few angles to work with. Here’s each contender’s path to the title, based only on the facts we know.
New Zealand (1.40 favourites)
Top of the log after Round 1 (5 points, +17).
Never lost to Argentina in Argentina.
Have won 9 of their last 10 against Australia.
Four straight losses to South Africa, but the next meeting is at Eden Park, where NZ haven’t lost since 1994.
Punters’ Path:
Beat Argentina twice (non-negotiable).
Take at least 3 of 4 against South Africa and Australia.
A sweep of one rival plus a split with the other = 5 wins and control of their destiny.
If they split both (4 wins total), bonus points and points difference become decisive – they’re no longer guaranteed.
Bottom line: To justify 1.40, NZ need 5 wins. A 4-2 record opens the door for South Africa.
KEO & ZELS: Relax, these Boks will still do it
South Africa (4.15)
Beaten by Australia in Round 1 but haven’t lost to the Wallabies in Cape Town since 1992.
Have won 4 of the last 5 against Australia.
On a four-game winning streak against New Zealand, but haven’t won there since 2018 (before that, 2009).
At Eden Park, the Boks haven’t won since 1937.
Punters’ Path:
Bounce back against Australia in Cape Town.
Sweep Argentina (including Twickenham in Round 6).
Take at least one win in New Zealand – either in Wellington or Auckland.
If New Zealand stumble to a 4-2 record, South Africa can force a title shootout on bonus points and points difference.
Bottom line: At 4.15, the value rests on breaking through in New Zealand and punishing any All Black slip.
BOK TEAM: Rassie turns to Pollard, Libbok pays the price
Australia (8.00)
Beat the Boks at Ellis Park last week (38-22).
Have lost 9 of their last 10 against New Zealand.
New Zealand have won 56 of 90 against the Wallabies in Australia and 66 of 83 in New Zealand.
Punters’ Path:
Back up Ellis Park by sweeping Argentina.
Steal one win against New Zealand to stay alive.
Avoid a heavy defeat in Cape Town this weekend.
Bottom line: Needs to crack the All Black code. Without a NZ scalp, 8.00 fades fast.
Argentina (67.00)
Beaten 41-24 by New Zealand in Round 1.
Never beaten the All Blacks in Argentina (best result: 21-21 draw in 1985).
Just 3 wins in 21 Tests against Australia in Australia.
Punters’ Path:
Rewrite history with a first-ever win over New Zealand in Buenos Aires.
Sweep Australia, home and away.
Upset South Africa at Twickenham in Round 6.
Bottom line: At 67.00, it would take multiple record-breaking results. Strictly long-shot territory.
Photo by James Worsfold/Getty Images
